Buster McLeod Benson is layin' low

open a bar/art gallery with friends (read all 2 entries…)
hedging bets versus being in it to win it 2 years ago

A very good strategy in life is to hedge bets. I think this strategy has been one of my greatest strengths… to consider and pursue multiple (sometimes incompatible) options until one surpasses the others in obvious value. Then taking that, until something else surpasses it in obvious value. This will get you through high school, college, and well into your adult life. Old age even maybe. Keep lots of friends, consider lots of jobs, anticipate a variety of possibilities. If one ship starts to sink, shift your weight into another. And be sure to get your foot in another door quickly. Balance balance. Mix metaphors, thrive in ambiguity, make many bets. A little bit of this, a little bit of that. Hedging bets is common sense.

I think bet hedging is a good beginner and intermediate strategy. It works immediately, even on very little information. By being invested in a number of things, there’s a good chance that at least some of them will carry you through. The pattern of things that carry you through become your personality—your preferences and tastes. At some point, you might abandon the hedge bets strategy for the more specific pattern of success that you’ve discovered from trial and error. Or you might not.

You will win some, and you will lose some. It’s almost a universal fact of life. The strength and the curse of the bet hedging strategy is that you’ll never be fully invested in any of your pursuits. You’ll always have a fall-back. With a fall-back, you will never be fully invested (in the metaphorical sense of the word) in any of your pursuits. The difference between hedging your life and hedging your bets is that life is impacted by your investment in it. The more invested you are in something, the more likely it is to become a reality. Imagine if this were true in gambling. Imagine that the more you bet on something, the more likely you were to win. Wouldn’t we bet quite differently then? And, therefore, wouldn’t we live quite differently if we truly believed that the amount of investment we have in life were a critical factor in the chances that the desired life will come to be?

Over the last year, I’ve stumbled backwards onto this counter-intuitive life strategy. The strategy of being 100% in the game, all or nothing, going for broke. In it to win it. This is an advanced strategy that, executed at the right time, can beat bet hedging a thousand-fold. No more dilly dallying. No more hedging bets. I’ve found a couple bets that I want to be 100% invested in. It could of course also lead to rock bottom. No good friend would recommend this strategy, but good friends don’t expect you to win big. To their credit, they really just want you to be happy. More than they want you to succeed, they want you not to fail big. Who will egg us on to a wild and extraordinary life if it requires that we risk ruin? Who will demand that we go out with a giant bang and stretch ourselves to crazy unheard-of limits? Only I can take the responsibility for giving and taking that advice for myself. And that’s what I’m notifying you about here. What I’ve found, is that once people see that you’re in it to win it, and see that you’re acting accordingly, they loosen up their hedges on you and are able to, in return, invest more of themselves into you. It’s a virtuous cycle that leads to everyone living a more extraordinary life.

To repeat, being in it to win it isn’t a risky strategy. The non-intuitive part of this is that hedging all of your bets is risky in the long term because you’ll never put enough of yourself into your life to really get the most out of it. The act of being 100% invested in your life and your projects and your friends will by its nature make it a safer bet, and people will feel safer having you on their side, and might even be inspired to help. If this is all there is, you should make sure that at least once in your life, you are 100% invested. Intuition understands this. In movies, or in stories, where everything is threatened, it is understandable that then it is appropriate to act in this manner… but in daily life our lives and everything we know are rarely threatened on a tangible and immediate level. Instead, the slow molasses of time threatens only small parts one at a time, never raising our alarm that this entire ship is slowly sinking all the time! It’s really a reason to celebrate, relax, and stop dilly dallying.

This is what my new life has become. My name change, my new business, my old business, my friends, everything and nothing, all of this will be wrapped up in a new strategy for living an extraordinary life, rallying people, and creating a bigger idea about what life can be that we can then all step into. Starting, officially, now.



Comments:

Tripes

“executed at the right time”, as you say, is critical to the going for broke strategy. But when is that time? How do you know when to abandon all other bets and let it all ride on one?

The last time I bet all my chips on one hand was almost 7 years ago. The bet was moving to Paris. At the time, I was a photocopier sales rep. I was also taking French courses with the Alliance Française and doing other various activities around Minneapolis. I wasn’t particularly enjoying the job. But I loved my French classes. This and other events lead me to go for broke. I quit my job. With the job out of the way, I was able to concentrate 100% on the move and finding other options in Paris. This continued for a while at the beginning as working in a foreign country is not always straightforward.

But to get back to my question, how do you know when you’ve found your “big one”? I think these decisions come down to gut feeling, something inside telling you to go for it. Risk is inherently risky. You can’t go about it with planning or caution. A deep felt belief in what you’re doing and your choice is necessary. It’s not about number crunching and probability of success. It’s near reckless abandon. And that’s the ground work for an extraordinary existence, risk taking.

Side note: over the past few years, I have found myself hedging again. Waiting for the next big thing.

great post speedy

made me think.

Buster McLeod Benson is layin' low

Gut

I agree that it’s gut. A complex feeling that emerges from your stomach, your arms, your brain, and your words all at the same time. It also has a lot to do with momentum. Your gut has to be prepared to run things for a while, because it’s suicide to go for broke and to hesitate at the same time. It’s a bit of a Catch-22… you can’t be in it to win it unless you’re already in it to win it.

My best answer would be that you know it’s the “big one” when failure is no longer a deterrent or a reason not to do it. When, not going after the goal is as bad or worse than going after it and failing. For me, this has come about by comparing life without going after your ideals versus life with going after your ideals. And also looking at a lot of my heroes and realizing that they all did something similar at some point in their lives. And many of them failed (technically speaking) on their way to becoming great. It’s possible to fail beautifully if you’re doing everything for the right reasons.

How did your Paris gamble go?

Regret is not an option

Momentum is necessary. Something pushing you from behind. And where does that come from? Motivation. Or is that a “chicken and the egg” question?

Regardless, it’s the desire to avoid regret (or the fear of). At the end of the day, that’s what it is. Regret for not having tried.

I seem to be repeating what you said, though, just throwing in my own words.

In any case, my “Paris pari” went well. I’ve lived her for the past almost 7 years now, completely re-established my life. However, I’m starting to get an itch and looking for new “ideals to go after”.

My new epitaph

I think that I’d like my (fictional because I’m going to be cremated and then have my ashes split into ten piles and thrown into the eyes of those on the list that will be included with my will) gravestone to say:

“She failed more exquisitely than millions succeed.”

(Still hedging my bets on the grammar of that one but this version scans.)

HolgaBaby is editing the crap out of her life.

Holy shit.

Brilliant and completely motivating. Buster, your posts here and elsewhere are turning into one sneaky manifesto, don’t you think? You need to print your little red manifesto on extraordinary living and, well, you may get on Oprah. That’s one of you 43 things, right?

I love reading your list and your comments. They always motivate me to get off my ass and do something.

Buster McLeod Benson is layin' low

Not so sneaky...

Thank you, Holga. Well, one of my goals is to write a manifesto, and I’ve already got my 11 steps... so hopefully if the Change This people accept my submission I’ll have it written in a month.


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