Bicycle 4000 miles in 2008

I’m better than half way there to my goal, and we still have a couple more months of summer to go. The problem is, most of the dark days and wet weather is in the last few months of the year.

Having nothing better to think about whilst crossing Mercer Island this afternoon, I contemplated the 80/20 rule.

If the 80/20 rule were true, and I really am going to ride 4000 miles this year, then I’d have to ride 3200 miles in the 73 days that fall roughly between Flying Wheels Century and RAPSody. And that really isn’t the case.

Right now, I figure I’ll ride 25% of my miles in the first third of the year, 50% of my miles in the second third, and then 25% in the last third. I should be able to pull off 1000 miles by the end of the month, no problem.

But if I really were realistic about this goal, a better proportion would be: 30% of my miles in the first third, half in the second third, and then just 20% for the last third. Because dang it, it gets really cold, dark, and rainy in the PNW in November and December.

And it seems unlikely that I can pull off 1200 miles by the end of April. I didn’t make my March mileage goal – wasn’t even close – so I’d have to do a lot of pedaling in the next three weeks – a lot more than I’m really likely to do.

_hmpf

If anything will save this goal for me, I’m hoping it’s my new job. I won’t have the bus to save me, so if I ride in, I’ve got to ride back – and it’s 20+ miles no matter how I slice it. I need to get route advice, too, from Jim Carson – he’s got to show me the safest (with my luck, it’ll probably also be the steepest) way up to the top of the Issaquah plateau.

Days I drove

Last year, I bicycled an estimated 3925 miles. I did so based when I had a part time work schedule through most of the year, and throughout the best bicycling weather of the year.

I was invited to participate in a 5000 mile goal for 2008, but I don’t think it’s realistic. I don’t want to set goals that I can not make. 4000 would be more than this year – it is both doable and still a stretch.

Here’s the monthly subgoals for the year:

Jan 200
Feb 200*
Mar 300*
Apr 300
May 400*
Jun 500*
Jul 500
Aug 500*
Sep 400
Oct 300
Nov 200*
Dec 200

*Met or exceeded those miles in 2007