Crowthing

First I gather all the information: race charts, past performances, and pedigrees. I determine each horse’s fractional times for each of it’s performances. I’ll weed horses out based on this objective information.

Then I turn to the subjective.
I’ll watch videos of all the prep races and judge for myself how well a horse ran, how comfortable it was when encountering trouble (tight quarters, pressure on the lead, being steadied, etc.), how it handled the surface, how hard it tried when asked, and if it was being asked for more effort in the last strides.
I’ll note the horse’s personality. Sounds ridiculous, but it is extremely important. Is the horse professional and relaxed, or a nervous headcase? Is it willing, or does it sulk and quit when tired? Sometimes a horse is just too smart – he has an opinion on everything, including whether he feels like winning on a given day. Sometimes a horse is difficult to focus on the task at hand. Sometimes you get the sense a horse is just playing in the race, and wants to run alongside other horses.
I’ll watch the videos to see if I am struck by any horse. For instance, once I saw Street Sense’s sweeping move around the far turn in the Tampa Bay Derby, I knew that he was my Kentucky Derby bet, and I was thrilled with the odds I got on derby day.
Next – other people’s subjectivity.
I’ll read the race caller’s comments on the horse’s performance in a race, bearing in mind that charts are written up differently from track to track. When encountering descriptions such as “all out,” “grudgingly,” or “willingly,” take a closer look at the video. Never read the chart as fact. Your own impressions are more significant. And really, when you are competing against a betting public which relies upon the same information as you (DRF past performances, Beyer figures, etc.) the only way to have an edge is to develop your own criteria for judging performance. I usually only have an edge when betting turf horses and maidens. I do best in AN1x or AN2x races at a mile or greater on the turf. But back to the topic – the Kentucky Derby is usually an excellent betting race.
I’ll take a look at the Beyer speed figures and track variants for each race, bearing in mind 1) the subjective nature of such figures, and 2) that these figures are frequently changed and/or modified during the racing season – which makes them somewhat suspect. Beyer figures also unduly influence the betting public, so it pays to look closely at them. I don’t think the Beyer figures for synthetic surfaces are correct.

I’ll take a look at the pedigree, mostly to see if the horse can get the mile and a quarter distance.

I’ll look at the historical trends for Derby winners to see if my pick fits the profiles. However, horses who don’t fit the profile have won the last two runnings so I’ll be careful with this.

I’ll watch the workout videos to determine the economy of movement, length of stride, and natural gait of the horse.

To sum up – the winner will have excellent fractional times. Armed with this knowledge, I’ll sift through the information, and use my intuition to make my final pick.
I think it will be Colonel John. But I’ve only done half the fractions so far.