develop an avian flu pandemic emergency plan

...was thinking of taking this seriously, now would be a good time to do it. There have been several news stories in the past few days indicating that the virus is beginning to spread human-to-human in Indonesia, and possibly Romania. The best up-to-date information can be found on the fluwikie forum.

ABC recently put up a special page for bird flu that seems relatively impartial and non-alarmist.

There is a community site called fluwiki with tons and tons of resources as well as a really good discussion forum. Admittedly, the folks there are a bit more concerned.

There’s also the U.S. government’s site for bird flu info which gives advice on preparations. I consider it a significant statement just that they put effort into making this site at all.

The key is finding a balance between overly concerned and unconcerned.

Stage 1: No evidence of danger to the general public (right now)

Nothing exciting. While I’m walking through the grocery store aisles, I keep an eye out for sales on non-perishable foods. I buy some extra canned goods, paper goods, and basic medicines – things that I would be buying anyway, but in larger quantities. These items will be easy to rotate into use when they start to get near their expiration dates. I might buy a few masks, although I would have to buy a huge quantity to make any difference in the long run. I also plan to save empty plastic bottles for potential water storage in the future.

Stage 2: Earliest evidence that the virus is beginning to pass from human to human, instead of just bird to human

This is the time when I start to buy things I wouldn’t normally buy. I plan to get a water purification system, some more extensive medical supplies (gloves and masks, if there are any left to be had), refill as many of my prescriptions as I can, an indoor camping-type stove and fuel, lots of bleach, pet food, more dehydrated and powdered food and milk, some extra gasoline, firewood, some basic tools, solar battery recharger, etc. I would begin to sterilize and fill plastic bottles with water and store it in case of a temporary shutdown of the water sanitation plant.

Stage 3: Virus begins spreading globally with evidence of high fatalities

At this point I would make a comprehensive list of everything I would need to completely isolate myself and my kids from the rest of the world for 3-6 months and purchase it. I would find someone to move the stinky woodstove back in the house if it’s wintertime and get the chimney cleaned out. I may considering buying a stungun or other personal protection items, although I’m very hesitant to have an actual firearm and ammo in the house. If I have to, I know my uncle has guns to spare. I would withdraw plenty of cash from the bank. Perhaps I would buy some peat pots and vegetable seeds for potentially growing some sprouts indoors in case fresh produce is limited. Unfortunately there’s nowhere on my property for an actual garden. I might consider buying a generator, although I think fuel might be one of the first things to become limited, in which case a generator would be of no use.

At the first sign of a human case in my state or any neighboring state, I intend to pull the kids out of school and begin homeschooling indefinitely. I would order as many educational materials as I could and pray that the internet stays up. I would also buy lots and lots of books, and some new toys and games to dole out. And I would hope we didn’t go crazy from the isolation.

It may sound extreme and unrealistic. But at this point, the death rate from the virus is about 55% and it kills children and young adults and a disproportionate rate, so I’m planning to just avoid exposure completely. It’s the only way I know of to keep my kids alive. Some doctors have reported that Tamiflu, the anti-viral medication that some countries are stockpiling, is ineffective. Vaccinations may take months or even years to prepare and distribute. With an estimated 30% of the workforce too ill to do their jobs during the peak of the pandemic, and possibly more at home caring for sick family members, production and distribution of basic supplies may be limited. I plan to have enough on hand to make it through those spotty periods. I would have someone delivering groceries at other times when supplies are available.

Stage 4 – Anything worse than that

If things get truly scary and dangerous, I plan to pack up and move to my aunt’s house out in the country. She has a garden, a well, and guns.

Even if there’s only a 1 out of 100 chance of a pandemic happening (and I believe the liklihood is greater than that), I plan to be prepared. Even if fatality rates with the best medical care are 1% (and deaths could be much higher), I plan to protect myself and my kids from any exposure to the virus until an effective vaccination or treatment is available. It may sound extreme, but better safe than sorry.

I researched this and then a good friend who’s a health writer researched this and that’s the plan.

Plan B – There is no plan B. It seems that all the masks and latex gloves and such won’t do much good.

From Dr. Dean Edell: the way to allocate avian flu vaccine, sufficient for a fraction of the population only in the foreseeable future -

1. The jump from bird-to-bird to bird-to-human form of the disease is through random mutation.

2. Random mutation is the engine of evolution.

3. Those who don’t accept evolution as fact also deny random mutation.

4. There is no point administering a substance to those who deny its existence.

5. Cutting down the number of candidates for the vaccine is to withhold it from those who don’t accept evolution as a scientific fact.

but basically, every time i go to the store i pick up a little something extra: either canned food or a bag of lentils or rice…we have a supply that grows a little bit every now and then…it’s not much YET, but hopefully with time (and prior to an actual pandemic) we’ll have enough food to last us a year